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Набор для биозавивки осветленных волос Joico K-Pak Waves Reconstructive Thio-Free T/H купить на ROZETKA. Оперативная доставка ✈ Гарантия качества ☑ Лучшая. However, to make the K-waves in the GDP per capita growth rate dynamics clearly visible one should apply again the technique widely used by Kondratieff in order. Kenzo Kids футболка с принтом K Waves за ₽ с Доставкой ✈ по России! Описание товара, состав, размеры в наличии.

K waves

Sort Relevance Date newest first Date oldest first. Firm ownership and size versus innovation activities over the business cycle : near-zero inertia as a sign of the transition from the fifth to the sixth Kondratieff wave. Saved in:. Modifications of long economic cycles and prospects for global economic dynamics in Klinov, Vilenin G.

A theory of the general causes of long waves : war, general purpose technologies, and economic change. Forthcoming Kondratieff wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and global ageing. Kondratieff Waves in the World System Perspective. Andrey, Korotayev ; Leonid, Grinin - Socionet - Special attention is paid to the interaction between Kondratieff waves ….

Сохранение традиций и надежды на будущее. Bondarenko, Валентина Михайловна … - In: Working papers 2 , pp. Нерешенные трудности методологии. Forecast horizon of 5th — 6th — 7th long wave and short-period of contraction in economic cycles. Why in certain periods do we observe prolonged upswings, whereas in other periods — notwithstanding all the enormous efforts of interested macroeconomic actors — economic development is accompanied by prolonged depressions?

What gets out of order in social and economic mechanisms? Since the seminal works published by Kondratieff, a number of outstanding researchers have made significant contributions to our understanding of the possible factors affecting and provoking long-term fluctuations of human economic affairs. On the other hand, it has become more and more clear that K-waves influence many social-related processes. That is why we have decided to try to unite the forces of such researchers around the new almanac.

This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide circle of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of world economics and globalization. Stephen I. Ternyik Economics Full text Brian J. Berry,Denis J. History, with Forecasts Full text Tessaleno C. William R. Контактные данные Карта веб-сайта Архив публикаций. Волгоград, ул.

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K waves Dimensions and Perspectives at the Dawn of the 21 st Century. This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide circle of those interested in the problems of the past, present, севастополь обмен валют воскресенье future of world economics and globalization. Вестник Института экономики Российской академии наук 1: — On the other hand, it is rejected by k waves majority of mainstream economists see, e. К моделированию и прогнозированию социально-демографического развития Африканской южнее Сахары. Wilenius, M.


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Click Here. The Word for Today Chuck Smith. Long-term movements in such indices would then be seen as evidence for Kondratieff waves. Successive Kondratieff waves would then represent a narrative of global economic evolution, a key terms of which are innovation and its diffusion. Kondratieffs of the structural variety may simply be called K-waves. Let us therefore define K-waves in particular as a pattern of regularity characteristic of structural change in the modern global economy.

Some 50—60 years in length, it consists of an alternation of start-up periods of slow build-up of globally significant innovations, with others of high growth, chiefly in lead industries, but influencing the entire world system. The growth of the IT information technology computer-internet sector in the past several decades is an excellent example of a K-wave and the extensive influence of that process, reshaping the economy, and moreover, is beyond any doubt.

The study of this pattern helps to trace the rise of the global economy and aids in long-range study of the modern world system. The emerging view, now broadly characteristic of a significant body of scholarship, privileges globally-significant innovation, and leading sector expansion see, e.

K-waves have been so far processes characteristic first of all of a lead national economy such as that of the United States in the 20 th century, or Britain in the 18—19 th centuries that are then diffused world-wide by such mechanisms as sheer emulation, and by world trade in products and services of leading sectors. In the high-growth period of new sectors they become characteristic of the global economy as a whole. Then they alter the attributes of the world economy, more visible in global data series than in those of national economies.

K-waves concern output, rather than prices, and sectoral output surges and targeted infrastructural investment in the world economy rather than the general macroeconomic performance GNP growth of national economies. They should not be sought for in the ups and downs of such indicators as gross domestic product and must be distinguished from shorter-term business cycles and financial crises.

However, high-growth periods for leading sectors tend to translate into a good deal of economic expansion and prosperity; they also constitute a substantive basis for globalization. K-waves unfold as phased processes that imply, for each particular sector, S-shaped growth or learning curves as distinct from expecting sine curves when graphing world GNP data.

Over a period of some 50—60 years, we observe a period of slow start-up, followed by fast growth rates, and ultimately, a leveling-off. Each wave is different in kind from the last one, in contrast with cycles, seen as mechanical fluctuations in attainment of some uniform quantity.

The start-up period of the next leading sector is also the period of flattening growth rates, declining profits, and severe competition for the previous lead industry; this transition between two leading sectors peak may be known as downswing. K-waves arise from the bunching of basic innovations that launch technological revolutions that in turn create leading industrial or commercial sectors.

In that sense, K-waves are caused by the demand for solutions to new problems, and the supply of such solutions by innovative enterprises and entrepreneurs. Each such wave therefore has its own individual innovative character, and can be named accordingly, as in Table 1.

Viewed over the modern world system, they constitute the story, an outline of a narrative, of the emergence of the global economy. Each K-wave has its own characteristic location in space and time. K-waves also have a clear location in time, and can be dated. Albeit hesitantly, some historians and world system theorists now extend such dating further into the past. Table 1 offers one recent scheme reaching all the way back to Song China, and grounded in the argument advanced inter alia by William McNeill that the beginnings of the contemporary market economy might be traced to that source one millennium ago.

The dates shown next to each K-wave are for the start of hypothesized start-ups, and the transition period that follows, with the high growth peak reached only some decades later. All such dates must, of course, be regarded as approximate. Such specificity is lacking in world GNP analysis.

Each K-wave has its own special character and specialization but each in its own way also changes the structure of the world economy. That is why a sequence of K-waves gives rise to structural transformations. Hall and Preston have shown that the three most recent K-waves each based on electrical energy, those that launched inter alia the telegraph and electric power, radio and electronics, and computers and the information industries might jointly be seen as the carriers of the information revolution that is still in progress.

Only in such an extended time-frame can truly long-term processes such as globalization be properly observed. No such a long-term perspective can be expected from world GNP studies if only for lack of data but also because of difficulty of using such a concept in that early context. In sum, the sectoral approach to Kondratieff appears well positioned to capture the global innovative focus of the forces that shape the world economy.

As we about to show below, it is also better suited for clarifying the complex web of interactions among economic, political and other structural processes of the modern world system. That way, it makes possible a fully analytical approach to the study of globalization. That has also been the tendency in much of the Kondratieff wave literature.

That assumption might well be questioned. Economic processes are indeed foundational to the working of the world system, for they rank high as factors that condition growth, that are relatively high in energy and necessary for mobilizing resources, but they do not suffice to complete social organization. That is why they cannot be viewed in isolation from other, equally significant processes. In contrast with conditioning factors there also are controlling factors, relatively high in information, that cannot be ignored, especially in the longer run, and also at the global level: they are both the forces of community formation rife with symbolic communication, the solidarity-builders that make increasingly extensive, long-term cooperation possible.

There are also those that are opinion-shaping, higher in information and reliant on learning, science and the media, for helping to spot global problems, and aiding in coping with them, by controlling the necessary plans or programs. These are the considerations that lead students of K-waves to study the interdependence of K-waves and the other global processes.

At one level, K-waves are seen as an endogenously generated response to problems facing the world economy: basic innovations as responses to system problems, such as railroads meeting the demands of a rising industrial economy, or data-processing as responsive to the needs of the military forces or the space program.

In that sense, K-waves are not the response to random shocks, as some economists have called for instance wars, but to predictable influences that make them coordinate with global political change; they may be seen as supplying the resources, hence the necessary conditions, for financing enterprises of system-building and global leadership. While it is clear that major warfare has so far marked the path of system-building it is also obvious that the evolutionary character of the enterprise means that major warfare is not an inherent feature of the emerging world system.

Some students of International Political Economy such as Joshua Goldstein have recognized but a loose connection between long economic waves and the fortunes of major powers in the modern world. A much stronger tie has been urged by Modelski and Thompson who have argued for an essential structural relationship between K-waves and global political leadership in system-building. A survey of economic history shows, as in Table 1, columns 1—3, a series of K-waves as the rise of successive globally significant lead industries; columns 4 and 5 of the same table also displays tightly linked to a parallel and structurally similar process, the rise of system-building world powers, hence significant change in world political arrangements.

That latter process is sometimes referred to as the hegemonic or leadership cycle, or more precisely in this context, as the long cycle of global politics without implying that the process animates an unchanging system. While the exact conditions of that process remain a matter of some debate, the existence of a succession of world powers in modern world politics is now taken for granted, and the similarities in the several approaches are now greater than the differences.

Participants in that debate, including Robert Gilpin, Immanuel Wallerstein, and Paul Kennedy have all recognized the role of economic growth in that process. It can further be shown that system-building world powers that served as foci of modern world politics, also accounted for the major proportion of economic innovations. The right-hand columns 3—5 in Table 1 list the powers that in the past five hundred years, since about , animated the global system via great enterprises of system-building and contended with successive challenges from inter alia Spain, France, and Germany.

It also shows, for the early modern era, that starts with Song China, two Italian republics, Genoa and Venice, that might be regarded as prototypical of later oceanic powers, whose trading networks organized a good part of the maritime routes while the Mongols, and then Timur, held sway over continental Eurasia. The rise of each such power is seen to be coordinate with K-waves in two ways: in space, in as much as each K-wave is initially largely located in the world power of that period, and also in time, in as much as the timing of these two processes of change is synchronized.

What is more, an economy that launches lead industrial sectors but not necessarily with the biggest GWP builds the foundation for a claim to leadership in global system-building. In turn, attainment of leadership position in the global system establishes the political framework for a global economic order.

In that way, illustrating the working of the power law discussed in the previous section, each long cycle of global politics numbered in Table 1 as LC1—LC10 has been matched, in the experience of the modern world, by two K-waves numbered as K1—K A rigorous, data-based test of that hypothesis of synchronization is a study of early globalization in the case of Portugal Devezas and Modelski , amplifying Modelski and Thompson That record maps as a century long learning curve Devezas and Modelski The location of the odd-numbered K-wave has served as a leading indicator of the identity of the next system-building global leadership.

The relationship between the Kondratieff processes and war has long been of interest to students of these matters. Indeed, Kondratieff himself strongly hinted at the hypothesized link between these two phenomena. In particular he observed that wars and revolutions were more likely to occur during what might be called the long start-up, or the transition period. A striking reminder of that relationship was the Great Depression of the s, sandwiched between the two World Wars, in the start-up phases of K In an empirical study of that relationship in a long time frame Joshua Goldstein saw economic upswings associated with K-waves as increasing the probability of severe war.

Brian Berry doubts such a connection and is troubled by the notion of an inherent tendency to war in the global political system. The record of modern K-waves so far has shown a close connection between the long cycle and the incidence of global wars, but that is not a sound prescription for the future see discussion in Modelski and Thompson 56—62; Modelski The relationship between K-waves and democratization may be less obvious but is also noteworthy, and has been reciprocal, in that democratic practices have been innovation-friendly and favorable to entrepreneurship, and the rise of new industries; while K-waves have been central to rising global connectivity and the creation of the elements not just of a world market but also of a global community.

Most generally, the significant lowering of the cost of information that has been the most recent result of this trend has had a positive impact on the world-wide spread of democracy. As another glance at Table 1 will confirm, the home bases of K-waves have been societies that can be classified as freer and more open, relatively to their competitors and their environment — in fact, a democratic lineage.

Forms of representative government were prominent in the Italian and Dutch Republics, as well as in Portugal and Britain. It is since thee mid th century that the K-wave-democracy connection has been demonstrably clear in particular relation to the United States. Innovation-engendering leading industrial sectors flourished first in environments favoring free flow of information, competitive markets, the rule of law, and openness to global problems, for innovation alone is not enough, it needs institutional support to create leading sectors.

The other strand of influences can be traced from K-wave system-building to an increasingly tightly connected world. As is also apparent from Table 1, in several instances, as, for example, in the Portuguese cases, the results of the K-wave process have been enhancements of the instruments and expansion of the products that animate world trade. The internet of the early 21 st century is only the latest instance of higher connectivity, and it is that higher connectivity that has in turn favored the spread of democratic practices, often using U.

In building a world market K-waves have put in place elements of a global community. But it is also clear that an increasingly interconnected world is also subject to new forms of instability. For Nikolay Kondratieff 25—6, 35, 90 the long movements described by him were features of the capitalist world economy that was evidently evolving meaning that the processes he observed were evolutionary.

But he was also acutely aware that the investigation of these processes was difficult because it called for a long period of observation for which lack of data was a severe problem, not forgetting the question of homogeneity. That is why his inquiries did not reach much further back than the nineteenth century. It is unfortunate that some students of this subject still regard long economic waves only as phenomena of the last century or two.

That makes Table 1 a foray into the past in the spirit of Kondratieff. It covers the modern era in its entirety the ancient and classical worlds lacked global processes , and it makes it possible to explore, on its basis, the value of an evolutionary explanation.

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